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It was in the 2011 grand final against the Magpies when the Cats cemented their place in footy folklore as one of the best teams in the history of the VFL/AFL. Under then-rookie coach Chris Scott, a final-quarter blitz saw Geelong comfortably account for Collingwood by 38 points to clinch their third premiership in the space of five seasons, completing the club’s most successful era in 125 years.
But as the Cats prepare for another epic finals battle with the Magpies nine years later, rather than being on the cusp of footy immortality serious questions are being asked of their ability to remain a force beyond this season.
Since winning their ninth flag, the Cats have remained a consistently good home-and-away side with no fewer than six top-four finishes, a minor premiership and eight appearances in the finals out of nine. Most teams would kill for that record. But the problem for Scott’s Cats lies beyond the final round of the regular season. Since 2011, they have won a mere four of 16 finals and have failed to reach the grand final, let alone win a flag.
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One theory is that Geelong’s record at Kardinia Park somewhat inflates their standing on the ladder. In the past nine seasons they’ve enjoyed an 86 per cent win rate at their fortress as opposed to a 52 per cent win rate at the MCG. In that period they’ve played only one final in Geelong and 13 finals at the MCG.
Scott and his recruiting department have done an incredible job of keeping the Cats at the pointy end of the ladder for the vast majority of his 10-year tenure, aided mainly by a concerted strategy of topping up the playing list with players from other clubs.
Under Scott’s watch, the Cats have brought in the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Zach Tuohy, Rhys Stanley, Gary Rohan, Lachie Henderson, Luke Dahlhaus, Josh Caddy, Jack Steven and Josh Jenkins. They also brought Gary Ablett Jr home after seven seasons at Gold Coast.
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It has been a distinctly different approach to the one which helped Geelong win their last three flags, as the club’s recruiting guru Stephen Wells pillaged numerous drafts and was able to accumulate enough top-end talent for previous coach Mark Thompson to develop into a force to be reckoned with for many years.
All in all, Geelong has experienced an incredible inter-generational period of success which has seen them feature in 10 preliminary finals in 16 years – a win over Collingwood would make it 11 in 17. But they’ve lost their past four and have a 4-6 record in the penultimate weekend of the season in that time.
Even if the Cats get past the Magpies, their task of winning this year’s flag is extremely difficult as they would not only have to get past the Brisbane Lions in a preliminary final at the Gabba – a venue where the Lions are yet to taste defeat at in 10 matches this year – but would then have to face either Port Adelaide or Richmond, who should beat St Kilda this week, in the premiership decider.
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This isn’t the first time during Scott’s reign where questions have been asked of Geelong’s longevity. It happened after last year’s preliminary final loss to Richmond. It happened in 2018 after their humbling elimination final defeat to Melbourne. It happened in 2015 when they failed to make the finals. It happened in 2014 when they made a straight-sets exit from the finals. It happened in 2012 when they suffered a shock elimination final loss to Fremantle. It even happened in 2010 before Scott got there when they got spanked by Collingwood in the preliminary final, Ablett joined Gold Coast and Thompson departed to join Essendon in an ill-fated move.
On each occasion that resilient club from down the highway has proven the doubters wrong. But this time it’s different. If they fail to achieve the ultimate success in season 2020, with so many players on their list on the wrong side of 30, this really would have a last-roll-of-the-dice feel about it.
Admirably, Scott has shown a lot of faith in the likes of Ablett (36 years old), Harry Taylor (34), Joel Selwood (32), Tom Hawkins (32), Tuohy (30), Henderson (30) and Dangerfield (30) – as he should have given their exalted standings in the game.
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But in a big final last week against Port Adelaide, the ageing Cats were run over the top of by a faster and younger side. With many of the club’s youngsters struggling to get regular game time, it remains to be seen how much further their list full of battle-hardened veterans can take them beyond 2020.
It might just be time to turn to Wells again to weave his magic at the draft table over the next few years in