AFL Round 15 is the last of the four bye rounds this season and will see six fixtures play out across four days. It all begins on Thursday night at the Cattery with Geelong hosting Melbourne in what should be a cracking match. As always, we provide our free preview and best betting tips right here.
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We’ve had a string of blockbuster matches to open each weekend in the AFL of late and Round 15 is no exception. Down at the Cattery on Thursday night, Geelong will host Melbourne in a battle between two powerhouses of the competition.
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Geelong have been in the headlines since the beginning of the season due to talks of a premiership hangover, but what better way to kickstart the back half of the season than beating one of this season’s premiership fancies.
The Cats had the opportunity to take a scalp by defeating the in-form Power in Adelaide last weekend and got off to a red-hot start to lead by 20 points at the first break, but the momentum quickly swung in the Power’s favour, and after that and the Cats had no answers as they eventually fell by 38 points.
In another tough break for the reigning premiers, captain Patrick Dangerfield is set to miss Thursday’s clash after suffering a partially punctured lung in their recent loss. However, ruckman Rhys Stanley will return and his impact will be paramount to their chances against the likes of Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, and the Demons.
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Meanwhile, Melbourne had a solid first half of the season and enter this fixture with nine wins and four losses to their name.
Last time out the Demons were able to defeat the then top-of-the-ladder Magpies by four points on Kings Birthday. That win made it two in a row after suffering a two-game slide, so it’s fair to say their form has been iffy in recent times.
Despite promising signs, superstar midfielder Clayton Oliver will miss his fourth straight game due to injury, which is a big let down as he was labelled as almost a certainty to return for Round 15.
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The Demons are clearly in better form compared to the Cats, although home ground advantage levels out the playing field which is seen in the odds (1.96 vs $1.84 at the time of writing).
Instead of attacking what seems to be an absolute 50-50 match, I’ll look to play into the total points market which I think is too high considering both the elite defence of both sides coupled with ominous weather forecast.
The forecast for Geelong (on Wednesday night) tells us that there’s an extremely high chance of rain at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night. With that intel, you can expect this will be a slog of a match with teams having equal chances of winning.
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Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals – Has reached this mark in 10 of his last 11 outings. There’s no reason why he won’t get it again here.
Mitch Duncan 20+ Disposals – Was one of few Cats to get to 20+ disposals against the Power last weekend. He also took the majority of their kick-ins. He should be good for another 20+ on Thursday night.
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Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals – It should be a wet and windy day at the Cattery which makes it tough for the tall forwards. That brings the likes of Tyson Stengle into play who’s due for a big match.
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